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Rapid productivity improvement is the dream for both companies and economic policymakers. If output per hour holds steady, firms must either sacrifice profits or raise prices to pay for wage increases or investment projects. Economies experiencing productivity booms can experience rapid wage gains and quick growth without as much risk of rapid inflation. — especially generative A.I., which is still in its infancy — has spread enough to show up in productivity data already. “may” have the potential to increase productivity growth, “but probably not in the short run.” John C. Williams, president of the New York Fed, has made similar remarks, specifically citing the work of the Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” John C, Williams, Robert Gordon Organizations: Ben, Abercrombie, Fitch’s, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Northwestern University
New York CNN —The United States is one step closer to losing its last perfect credit rating after Moody’s Investors Service changed the outlook of the nation’s debt to negative on Friday after markets closed. These effects would likely be even more painful if Moody’s does eventually downgrade the US debt. The nation’s diminished fiscal strength, undone by extreme partisanship in Washington, was a key driver of the action, according to a statement from Moody’s. Standard and Poor’s downgraded the United States for the first time in 2011, following the debt ceiling standoff then. In August, Fitch Ratings knocked America’s credit rating down after the most recent debt ceiling debate.
Persons: America’s, Wally Adeyemo, , Moody’s, Poor’s, Kevin McCarthy, Mike Johnson, Johnson, Karine Jean, Pierre Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s Investors Service, United, AAA, Fitch, House Press, Republican, Treasury Locations: New York, United States, Washington, Moody’s, , American
REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsSept 5 (Reuters) - A post Labor-day rush of bond issuance by U.S. investment-grade-rated companies added renewed pressure on long-end U.S. Treasuries, as some investors switch to buying top-rated corporate debt offering higher yields than those on government bonds. Investors told Reuters they expect anywhere between $100 billion and $150 billion in new bond issuance this month. Ten-year Treasury bond yields were last about nine basis points above Friday's market closing, at 4.27% from 4.180%, and 30-year yields similarly climbed about 9 bps to 4.38% from 4.285% on Friday. Other factors have also contributed to the selloff, from higher government bond supply to rising concerns around U.S. debt sustainability, as highlighted by Fitch’s downgrade of U.S. debt last month. "For right now, it’s just all about supply, and I think that’s what’s pushing yields higher," he said.
Persons: Florence Lo, Gennadiy Goldberg, Tom di Galoma, it’s, Philip Morris, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Financing, Investors, Reuters, Fed, ICE, TD Securities USA, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Tuesday's, Unilever Capital Corp, Philip Morris International, Volkswagen, Thomson Locations: U.S
What mortgage rates over 7% mean for the housing market
  + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —An already miserably unaffordable housing market is getting more expensive. As mortgage rates top 7% — the highest they’ve been in 21 years according to Freddie Mac — home buyers face ballooning costs. “The fact that we are seeing rates at these highs is having an impact on the housing market,” Freedman said. “That’s bad news for mortgage rates which correspondingly may rise to 8%,” he said. “We thought mortgage rates would be much lower by now,” she said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , , Bess Freedman, Brown Harris Stevens, Freedman, ” Freedman, Buyers, ” Lawrence Yun, Yun, Jessica Lautz, we’d, Melissa Cohn, Cohn, “ Banks, ” Cohn Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, National Association of Realtors, NAR, , Fed, William, Mortgage, ” Fed, Treasury Locations: Washington
Why Fitch’s Downgrade Matters
  + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Greg Ip | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fitch-downgrade-us-credit-rating-4ad98230
Persons: Dow Jones, fitch
CNN —The US economy is resilient, but policymakers need to take the long view on the country’s fiscal challenges, three former Treasury secretaries told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday. “But it’s in some ways a very important wake-up call.”The downgrade came after a last-minute bipartisan deal in June that suspended the US debt ceiling until early 2025. I strongly disagree with Fitch’s decision, and I believe it is entirely unwarranted,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing new rules that could restrict investment in certain sectors in China, according to reports. When asked about US-imposed tariffs on China, Paulson said “we are working to close markets at the same time that China is doing business with more and more of the world.”“China is a major, major competitor,” he added.
Persons: CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, ” “, , Henry Paulson, George W, Bush, Janet Yellen, Paulson, , ” Timothy Geithner, Geithner, , ” Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton, Zakaria, Biden, , Jennifer Hansler, Gan, Juliana Liu Organizations: CNN, Fitch, AAA, Treasury Department, Capitol, Poor’s Locations: United States, China
When Nikola Swann heard that Fitch Ratings had removed the United States from its list of risk-free borrowers this week, he felt a sense of satisfaction. More than a decade ago, Swann played a key role in a similar decision: He was Standard & Poor’s primary analyst for its sovereign credit rating on the United States when the agency became the first ever to downgrade the nation’s long-term credit rating amid a debt ceiling standoff in 2011. Bloomberg called the reasons for the downgrade “fundamentally political” in 2011, while others argued that it appropriately reflected a worsening debt crisis. Both a decade ago and this week, partisan politics were cited as one reason for the downgrade. S&P cited “the gulf between the political parties.” Fitch, which made the call two months after the United States narrowly avoided defaulting on its debt, cited “the repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”
Persons: Nikola Swann, Fitch, , Swann, ” Fitch Organizations: Treasury Department, Bloomberg, & $ Locations: United States
The higher the rating, the more likely the investor can trust that principal and interest payments will arrive on time. Indeed, global investors use the interest rate on US Treasury bonds to determine the interest rate on other countries’ bonds. Consider the recent battle over increasing the Treasury debt limit and looming prospects for a government shutdown later this year. These so-called governance issues are central to Fitch’s decision to downgrade the nation’s debt. The last time was in the early 1990s when interest payments on the debt ballooned, and the fiscal outlook darkened.
Persons: Mark Zandi, CNN —, Fitch, , Thomas Jefferson, Alexander Hamilton, we’ve, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, Lore, Winston Churchill Organizations: Moody’s, CNN, AAA, Mark Zandi CNN, Treasury, European Union, US Treasury, Twitter, Facebook, Democrat, Republican, British
The fallout from Fitch’s downgrade continuesStocks appear set to open lower today, after falling yesterday in the wake of Fitch Ratings downgrading the United States’s AAA credit rating. But others have said Fitch’s move, while largely symbolic, still points to long-term troubles for the nation and its fiscal health. “There is no willingness on any side to really tackle the underlying challenges,” Mr. Francis said. But “it doesn’t really matter much,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., told CNBC yesterday, echoing a common refrain to Fitch’s move. Critics of the move noted that according to criteria laid out last year by Fitch itself, including debt-to-G.D.P.
Persons: Richard Francis, Fitch’s, standoffs, ” Mr, Francis, ” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s, Fitch Organizations: Fitch, United States’s AAA, Wall, U.S, Times, JPMorgan, CNBC Locations: U.S
US investors are searching overseas for opportunities
  + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Despite the gains in US stocks this year, some investors are looking for opportunities elsewhere. That’s despite what’s been shaping up to be a banner year for the US stock market — at least prior to this week’s US credit rating downgrade (more on that below). But some investors say that cheaper valuations for non-US stocks, compared to their domestic counterparts, are enticing some on Wall Street to look for deals overseas. The S&P 500 index currently trades at about 19.6 times its expected earnings, according to FactSet. That MSCI All Country World ex USA index has risen roughly 9% on a US dollar basis, underperforming the S&P 500.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, That’s, what’s, , Adam Turnquist, China’s, Jimmy Lee, bode, Fitch, ” Richard Francis, CNN’s Matt Egan, Francis, , ” Francis, Janet Yellen, Obama, Jason Furman, Larry Summers, Read, Sam Stovall Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, LPL, Global, The Wealth Consulting, America, Fitch, Treasury Department, AAA
“The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management,” Fitch said in its report. Even though the US avoided a default on its debt this year, Fitch Ratings cited a 'steady deterioration in standards of governance' in dowgrading the nation's credit. Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesThe message from Fitch this week, and S&P more than a decade earlier, is that the constant brinkmanship in DC is eroding trust. Historically, raising the debt ceiling was not controversial — the “full faith and credit” of the United States wasn’t something either party wanted to trifle with. That’s because the entire global financial system hinges on the promise that the United States always pays its debts.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Fitch, Biden, ’ brinkmanship, , Donald Trump, ” Fitch, Anna Moneymaker, Barack Obama, Stocks, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, America, Republican, United Locations: New York, United States, Washington, America
Warren Buffett isn’t worried about Fitch’s downgrade
  + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
New York CNN —Warren Buffett is shrugging off Fitch Ratings’ historic downgrade of US credit from the top AAA grade to AA+. The “Oracle of Omaha” told CNBC on Thursday that his company, Berkshire Hathaway, bought $10 billion worth of US Treasuries on Monday and did the same exactly a week prior. “The only question for next Monday is whether we will buy $10 billion in 3-month or 6-month [Treasury notes],” Buffett said. That suggests that much like others on Wall Street, Buffett believe Fitch’s downgrade won’t have much of a long-lasting, negative impact on the economy, the government’s ability to borrow, nor the safety of US Treasuries. Even after the most recent downgrade, Moody’s has kept its top rating of US credit.
Persons: New York CNN — Warren Buffett, Omaha ”, Berkshire Hathaway, ” Buffett, Buffett, Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Fitch, AAA, CNBC, AA Locations: New York, Omaha, Berkshire, United States
Warren Buffett tours the floor ahead of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder's Meeting in Omaha, NE. Warren Buffett shrugged off Fitch's U.S. credit rating downgrade, noting it doesn't change what his conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway , is doing at the moment. On Tuesday, Fitch lowered its long-term foreign currency issuer default rating for the U.S. to AA+ from AAA. Buffett noted these concerns are valid, and the Oracle of Omaha said he doesn't agree with everything the federal government is doing. "The dollar is the reserve currency of the world, and everybody knows it," Buffett said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Treasurys, Buffett, CNBC's Becky Quick, Fitch, it's Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, AAA, Oracle, Treasurys Locations: Omaha, Fitch's, Berkshire, U.S
That deterioration, as well as increased polarization in the country’s political climate, was visible in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which the agency highlighted in meetings with the Treasury ahead of the downgrade. "You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. Higher interest rates are also likely to make the country's debt burden heavier to sustain, he added. The latest debt ceiling suspension, agreed in June, will last until early 2025, when another political debate around the borrowing limit is likely, he added. "That would just highlight the real political polarization and the kind of deterioration in governance that we've already noted ... to have a two-notch downgrade would be pretty harsh."
Persons: Donald Trump, Leah Millis, Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Janet Yellen, we've, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Reuters, AAA, Republicans, Hearst, Standard, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States
New York CNN —Fitch Ratings downgraded US long-term debt late on Tuesday from AAA to AA+, citing this spring’s debt ceiling standoff as a major reason. In the midst of the very tense debt ceiling standoff of 2011, Standard and Poor’s downgraded US debt for the first time in history. “My sense is that the Fitch downgrade of the US credit rating is an insignificant development and will not move financial markets or the economy,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. “The majority of our clients’ investments in China are through index funds, and we are one of 16 asset managers currently offering US index funds investing in Chinese companies,” BlackRock said in a statement to CNN. “With all investments in China and markets around the world, BlackRock complies with all applicable US government laws.
Persons: New York CNN — Fitch, Fitch, , Joseph Brusuelas, ” Fitch, Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, , Dow, BlackRock, Larry Fink, Henry Fernandez, MSCI, Mike Gallagher of, Raja Krishnamoorthi, ” BlackRock, ” MSCI Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, AA, RSM, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Treasury, US, Twitter, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Congressional, Chinese Communist Party of, BlackRock, CNN, People’s Liberation Army, PLA, Republican, Locations: New York, America, United States, States, Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, Illinois, MSCI, China
CNN —There may not be any lasting major negative ramifications from the surprise US credit rating downgrade by Fitch this week — not for the economy, not for consumers and not for the government’s ability to borrow. Normally, when your credit score as a consumer falls — or your credit rating as a country — there are negative consequences. Here’s why the United States is unlikely to see that kind of impact from the Fitch downgrade. The downgrade wasn’t a huge dropFitch cut its US credit rating to AA+ from what had been a sterling AAA rating. “Fitch’s credit rating is an expression of the probability of a default.
Persons: You’re, Fitch, , brinkmanship, Marc Goldwein, you’re, , Mark Zandi, Yellen, Jamie Dutta, Dutta, ” George Mateyo, ” Mateyo, ” José Torres, Torres, it’s, ” Torres, Uncle Sam, CRFB, – CNN’s Krystal Hur, Allison Morrow Organizations: CNN, Fitch, AAA, Committee, U.S . Treasury, Moody’s, AA, , Vantage, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve, Interactive Brokers, Moody’s Investors Service, Treasury, Congressional, Social Security Locations: United States, States, corporates, United
It’s unlikely that the move — only the second downgrade in American history — will dent investor appetite for Treasury notes. But the decision is another sign that Wall Street is worried about political chaos, including brinkmanship over the debt limit that is becoming entrenched in Washington. The move came two months after Washington narrowly avoided a U.S. default, following a prolonged argument over the debt ceiling. (That said, some on Wall Street remain skeptical that the country is headed for a so-called soft landing.) Fitch’s own model shows the U.S. economy deteriorating during the Trump administration and recovering under President Biden.
Persons: Fitch, , Trump, Biden Organizations: Fitch, United States ’ AAA, Washington, Social Security Locations: U.S, Washington
That deterioration, as well as increased polarization in the country’s political climate, was visible in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which the agency highlighted in meetings with the Treasury ahead of the downgrade. "It was something that we highlighted because it just is a reflection of the deterioration in governance, it's one of many," he said. "You have the debt ceiling, you have Jan. 6. The latest debt ceiling suspension, agreed in June, will last until early 2025, when another political debate around the borrowing limit is likely, he added. "That would just highlight the real political polarization and the kind of deterioration in governance that we've already noted ... to have a two-notch downgrade would be pretty harsh."
Persons: Donald Trump, Leah Millis, Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Janet Yellen, Jared Bernstein, , we've, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Fitch, Reuters, AAA, Republicans, Hearst, Standard, Treasury, CNBC, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, States, United States
Fitch tells CNN why it downgraded America now
  + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
New York CNN Business —Fitch Ratings is defending its controversial decision to downgrade the US credit rating by pointing to the nation’s mountain of debt. “The numbers speak for themselves,” Richard Francis, the lead analyst on US sovereign ratings at Fitch, told CNN in an interview on Wednesday. Within minutes of Fitch’s downgrade on Tuesday evening, the White House, Treasury Department and some leading economists slammed the move. Whether America slips into a mild recession or narrowly avoids one “just doesn’t move the needle,” Francis told CNN. ‘The center’s fallen apart’Beyond the fiscal mess, Fitch is growing increasingly worried about the political situation in the world’s largest economy.
Persons: New York CNN Business — Fitch, ” Richard Francis, Francis, , ” Francis, Janet Yellen, Fitch, Obama, Jason Furman, Larry Summers, , Donald Trump, there’s, Biden Organizations: New York CNN Business, Fitch, CNN, Treasury Department, Social Security, Office, Democrats, Republicans, Trump Locations: America
CNN —The credit ratings of US mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were downgraded by Fitch Ratings on Wednesday, the day after Fitch cut the US sovereign rating from the top-ranked AAA to AA+. The firm downgraded the mortgage giants’ Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) and senior unsecured debt ratings from AAA to AA+. The ratings agency said that as government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac benefit from implicit government support. But this flow of funds could be disrupted if the United States defaults on its debt, Fitch warned. It also said that should the US sovereign debt rating be raised, the GSEs’ rating would move in tandem.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Fitch, , Freddie, Fannie, Fannie Mae’s, Freddie Mac’s, Organizations: CNN, Fitch, AAA, AA, Congress, Federal Housing Finance Agency, U.S, Treasury’s Locations: United States
“I strongly disagree with Fitch Ratings’ decision,” said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a statement on Tuesday. The last time the US debt was downgraded by another major credit rating agency, S&P, came in 2011. Until 2011, US debt had carried a perfect credit rating since Moody’s Investors Service first assigned the United States a AAA rating in 1917. The country’s new Fitch rating puts it on par with Austria and Finland but below Switzerland and Germany. S&P has maintained its AA+ rating on the US after the 2011 downgrade while Moody’s has kept its AAA rating.
Persons: CNN — Fitch, , Fitch, ” Fitch, Biden, , Janet Yellen, Karine Jean, Pierre, , Chuck Schumer, Spokespeople, Kevin McCarthy, Moody’s, Larry Summers Organizations: CNN, AAA, Biden, Fitch, AA, Republican, Republicans, Moody’s Investors Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Twitter Locations: United States, Austria, Finland, Switzerland, Germany
New York CNN —Fitch Ratings is keeping the United States on watch for a potential credit rating downgrade even after Congress passed a last-minute bill to avert a disastrous default. Although the resolution to the debt ceiling fight is a “positive,” Fitch expressed deep concern about the recurring brinksmanship and worsening polarization in Washington. That reasoning is similar to the rationale behind the downgrade by S&P in 2011 – an unprecedented step that occurred after Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling. The latest debt ceiling battle has prompted more calls for reform or even eliminating the debt ceiling. This isn’t the first time the credit ratings firm has sounded the alarm about the messy state of affairs in America.
Persons: New York CNN — Fitch, Fitch, ” Fitch, “ Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Joe Biden, Chris Krueger, ” Krueger, , James McCormack, Fitch’s, ” McCormack Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Fitch, AAA, House Republicans, Congressional, Cowen’s Washington Research Group, Security, Medicaid, Fed, Treasury Locations: New York, United States, Washington, America
Washington, DC CNN —The credit ratings of US mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were put on watch for possible downgrade by Fitch Ratings late Thursday. The warning came because the ratings for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are linked to the sovereign rating of the United States. The aim of Freddie and Fannie is to provide liquidity into the mortgage market and enable a reliable flow of affordable funds to mortgage lenders. “The housing GSEs continue to benefit from meaningful financial support from the U.S. government,” the Fitch statement said. “While politics are at play, the ratings watch is a just that — a watch,” she said.
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Persons: Fitch, Abercrombie Organizations: Abercrombie, Service, Fitch, Supreme Locations: Wall, Silicon
New York CNN —Every few years, Washington plays a dangerous game of chicken over whether to raise the debt ceiling or default on US debt. Even if a default is avoided this time, the frequent nature of these political showdowns could cause America’s credit rating to get downgraded, Fitch Ratings told CNN on Monday. Those already look messy and were at the heart of the unprecedented credit ratings downgrade by S&P Global Ratings in 2011. Goldman Sachs told CNN in late January that a full-blown debt ceiling crisis could spark a recession. That’s why Fitch does not have the United States on watch for a downgrade, at least not yet.
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